The Over/Under of the NFL

As the NFL is about to get going in full-force, it is time to look at the over/under win totals for all 32 NFL teams and predict what each team will do. All odds are courtesy of Bodog, and you can thank me in advance for giving you the winning formula this season.

Arizona Cardinals:  +/- 6.5 wins

  • Last year the Cardinals were a 5-win team with Derek Anderson, Max Hall, John Skelton and Richard Bartel. This year it should be a lot easier to surpass that total if Kevin Kolb is who Arizona thinks he is. But due to a tough schedule I peg the Cardinals at exactly six wins. Verdict:  Take the under.
Atlanta Falcons:  +/- 10.5 wins
  • It has been covered to death, but the gamble to trade up for Julio Jones could be a make-or-break moment for the Falcons. I think that with him on the field and Peyton Manning off of it, the Falcons have become the most powerful offense in the NFL. They have the unenviable task of competing in the NFC South, but being paired with the NFC North and AFC South will help them land at 11 wins. Verdict: Take the over.
Baltimore Ravens: +/- 10.5 wins
  • I love the addition of Lee Evans. I think he will help take Joe Flacco to the next level. A dynamic offense is all that has been missing in Baltimore for years. If they have that, paired with their Top-5 defense, I think they could win 13 games this year. Verdict: Take the over.
Buffalo Bills: +/- 5.5 wins
  • Last year the Bills were not as bad a team to watch as their record reflected. They had some breakout performances by Stevie Johnson and Fred Jackson while Ryan Fitzpatrick proved he may actually be a starting quarterback in the NFL. This offseason they went out and grabbed a couple of retread linebackers in Shawne Merriman and Nick Barnett along with utility man Brad Smith. These guys make the team better, but unfortunately not better than a 4-win season. Verdict: Take the under.
Carolina Panthers: +/- 4.5 wins
  • Cam Newton won a Heisman, National Championship and the hearts of the Panthers organization. Too bad he’s the starter this year and wont win more than 2 games. Verdict: Take the under. 
Chicago Bears: +/- 8.5 wins
  • Last year the Bears surprised a lot of people, myself included. I still cannot buy into Jay Cutler, especially without an offensive line, a malcontent running back and no true number one receiver. Their defense is still one of the better ones in the league, but I don’t see how they can get more than 8 wins this season. Verdict: Take the under.
Cincinnati Bengals: +/- 5.5 wins
  • Andy Dalton seems like a nice guy with an awesome nickname, but I don’t see that translating to much this year. It is going to be a painful year for the Bengals, but I think they are setting themselves up for some success in the future with a young core of Dalton, A.J. Green, Jordan Shipley and Jermaine Gresham. This year they will win 3 games, but who knows maybe next year it could be six. Verdict: Take the under.
Cleveland Browns: +/- 6.5 wins
  • Peyton Hillis had a breakout season last year rushing for over 1,100 yards and 11 touchdowns. That coupled with an improved Colt McCoy should equal their win total of last year. Problem is, I see nothing else either on their schedule or on their roster that gets them to or above 6 wins this year. Brown fans will have to settle with 5 wins again. Verdict:  Take the under. 
Dallas Cowboys: +/- 9 wins
  • The Cowboys started last season terribly. After getting trounced in Week 8, Wade Phillips was fired and Jason Garrett took the helm with Jon Kitna as quarterback. Garrett is back now with Tony Romo and what looks to be an improved offense. What is going to be key is if Rob Ryan can make his cornerbacks play adequately. It is sad to say that adequate is the bar, but the good news is it should be easy to meet. A softer schedule puts the Cowboys at 9 wins in my book. Verdict: Push. 
Denver Broncos:  +/- 5.5 wins
  • Lost in all the offseason quarterback circus in Denver was the season that Kyle Orton had last year. Though he only played in 13 games, Orton still had 3,600 yards (#10 in the league) and 20 touchdowns (#17.) If he is given a full season I think he will have Pro Bowl like numbers giving the Broncos a fighting chance at the wide open AFC West. Verdict: Take the over. 
Detroit Lions: +/- 7.5 wins
  • I don’t buy the hype. While I do think the Lions have the top defensive line in the league, I don’t see that equating to more than 8 wins, let alone a playoff berth. Their problems exist almost everywhere. A shaky offensive line, no every down back, a weak secondary and an injury prone quarterback. If things went well for the Lions this year (Matt Stafford stays upright and healthy and the defensive line channels the ’07 Giants) then I could see 8 wins. But with Detroit’s luck I say 6. Verdict: Take the under.
Green Bay Packers: +/- 11.5 wins
  • The defending Super Bowl Champions got off to an amazing start on Thursday putting up 42 points against the Saints. While that total is impressive and Aaron Rodgers looked like a man possessed, the fact that their defense gave up 34 points is worrisome. They were able to stuff Mark Ingram to seal the win, but only after Drew Brees had gashed them all the way to the goal line. I think the Packers will win 13 games this year, but I don’t see a repeat. Verdict: Take the over. 
Houston Texans: +/- 8.5 wins
  • No one likes to see Peyton Manning’s season and possibly career in jeopardy, but all the same the Texans stand to benefit. The Titans are grooming quarterback-in-waiting Jake Locker. The Jaguars just cut their starting quarterback, and the Colts are turning the reins over to Kerry Collins for at least the first month of the season. I will be shocked if the Texans don’t win 10 games this season, and if they don’t, Gary Kubiak will be job hunting next season. Verdict: Take the over. 
Indianapolis Colts: +/- 9.5 wins
  • There is so much up in the air right now when it comes to the Colts. If Peyton is 100% and plays at least 8 games I think they make the playoffs. If he isn’t ready and Kerry Collins plays like a 38-year-old who retired in July then I see the Colts going under .500. For now I have to say I think they win 8 games this year. Verdict: Take the under. 
Jacksonville Jaguars:  +/- 6 wins
  • I’ve always thought that David Garrard didn’t get the credit or respect that he was due. Difference was I used to think that his team did respect him, apparently not. Now that Luke McCown is the starting quarterback for the Jaguars I don’t see them winning 4 games. Good news is that once they move to Los Angeles they will have their quarterback of the future in Blaine Gabbert. Verdict: Take the under. 
Kansas City Chiefs: +/- 7.5 wins
  • I was shocked by the Chiefs last year. I always thought Jamaal Charles was a good running back, but not that good. The biggest surprise though was how their defense stepped it up last year. I don’t see another 11 wins out of this bunch, but with a great running game and solid defense, I don’t see how they don’t get at least 8. Verdict:  Take the over. 
Miami Dolphins:  +/- 7.5 wins
  • Poor Tony Sparano. Once upon a time he was looked at as a genius coach with a long term future in Miami. Now he is coming off an offseason where his team courted Jim Harbaugh while Sparano was still under contract and his team is having a celebration where the main attraction will be the other teams third string quarterback. I don’t see how given those distractions, the fact that the Dolphins lost their most dynamic offensive players in Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, and a brutal schedule equal more than 5 wins. Verdict: Take the under. 
Minnesota Vikings: +/- 7 wins
  • Donovan McNabb should not be measured by what happened in Washington. He still has gas in the tank, and although he was in the wrong system last year, he still had a decent enough season. Putting him on a team that will tailor their offense to him with the best running back in the game will do wonders for him. I think that with a good offense the Vikings defense will not have to shoulder the load and will still be in the top half of the league. Verdict: Take the over. 
New England Patriots: +/- 11.5 wins
  • Unless Albert Haynesworth decides to sit on Tom Brady the Patriots will have at least 12 wins. Verdict: Take the over. 
New Orleans Saints: +/- 10 wins
  • Already in a 0-1 hole the Saints received some bad news when it was learned that Marques Colston will miss four weeks with a broken collarbone. Good news is Drew Brees doesn’t rely on receivers, they rely on him. More good news is how explosive Darren Sproles was on Thursday. Although they play in what is going to be one of the toughest divisions in the NFL this year I still see the Saints winning 10 games and winning the Wild Card. Verdict: Push. 
New York Giants: +/- 9.5 wins
  • I am of the firm belief that if Eli didn’t have the last name Manning he would be seen as no better than the likes of Jason Campbell or Mark Sanchez. As a result of his poor play this year (part of which may be blamed on the Giants for letting Kevin Boss and Steve Smith walk) and an injury riddled defense I see New York taking a nosedive. Honestly I see a 6 win season this year. Verdict: Take the under. 
New York Jets: +/- 10 wins
  • Call me crazy but I don’t see how the Jets improved this year by losing Shaun Ellis, Brad Smith and Braylon Edwards. Yes, they did get Plaxico Burress but I see his impact as limited in his first year back from prison. What the Jets still do have is a great coach with a fast-paced, hard hitting defense that will bail out Sanchez plenty this year. A soft schedule with the AFC West could get the Jets to double digits but I’m going to say 9 wins to be safe. Verdict: Take the under. 
Oakland Raiders: +/- 6.5 wins
  • Maybe someone will be able to explain to me why the Raiders cut Nnamdi Asomugha. He was the most sought after free agent this offseason… I guess it’s besides the point, but to me it says a lot about the Raiders organization. One thing I will give Oakland is they have the potential to have an explosive offense, sadly just not from Darius Heyward-Bey or Terrelle Pryor. Verdict: Take the under.
Philadelphia Eagles: +/- 10.5 wins
  • The “Dream Team” has plenty of people gunning for them right now. Opponents question the teams chemistry, but I for one don’t see an issue. Defense had the biggest overhaul and also requires the least amount of time spent on working together as a unit. On offense there will be less catches to go around, but as long as Mike Vick stays healthy I don’t see any malcontents and at least 12 wins. Verdict: Take the over. 
Pittsburgh Steelers: +/- 10.5 wins
  • James Harrison had an eventful offseason questioning his running back, quarterback, and the commissioner. On any other team those kinds of commets might create discontent in the locker room, but it appears all is well in Pittsburgh and if it holds up I see no reason why they can’t win 11 games this season. Verdict: Take the over. 
San Diego Chargers: +/- 10 wins
  • Last year, as per usual, the Chargers got off to a terrible start and couldn’t recover to make the playoffs. But this year, with Vincent Jackson back and a healthy Ryan Mathews I see the Chargers jumping out to an early lead and taking the division comfortably with a 12-win season. Verdict: Take the over. 
San Francisco 49ers: +/- 7.5 wins
  • “With the first pick in the 2005 NFL Draft, the San Francisco 49ers select Aaron Rodgers from the University of California.” Oh man, what if? Too bad it was and still is Alex Smith. Harbaugh is a good coach, and eventually will win, but only once he gets his guys in the system. And by his guys I mean Andrew Luck. Verdict: Take the under. 
Seattle Seahawks: +/- 6.5 wins
  • What is Pete Carroll thinking? Has he not seen Tarvaris Jackson play before? For a guy who is supposed to measure talent well, Pete is really striking out with this. To make matters worse there isn’t an alternative unless the Seahawks land Garrard. Is it all just a clever ploy to be reunited with Matt Barkley? Verdict: Take the under. 
St. Louis Rams: +/- 7.5 wins
  • The Rams will be an interesting team this year. They could be this years Buccaneers, not a ton of hype but a great young core who breaks out.  But at the same time they could be this years 49ers, a team with promise and hype that falls flat on their face. I think they will fall somewhere in between with around 8 wins. Verdict: Take the over. 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +/- 8 wins
  • Last year Tampa was a good team, I don’t want to take anything away from them there. But a large part of their success was due to the fact that they had a weak schedule. This year it has been amped up and so their wins will go down. An 8-win season is nothing to be ashamed of, and it will be even better next year. Verdict: Push. 
Tennessee Titans: +/- 6.5 wins
  • Matt Hasselbeck is a solid quarterback who still has some gas left in the tank, but only if he can stay healthy. If not the reins will be handed over to Locker a bit earlier than he is ready for. I see that and a 4-win season in the mix in Nashville. Verdict: Take the under. 
Washington Redskins: +/- 6.5 wins
  • Although the most dysfunctional quarterback situation lies in the Nations Capital, I see the Redskins getting to 7-wins this season. A soft early season schedule paired with a strong running game and underrated defense will get the Redskins another average season with the hopes of a better future. Verdict: Take the over.

One thought on “The Over/Under of the NFL

  1. Pingback: What I Learned about the NFL « The DagoBlog

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